Agence France-Presse - 3/21/2009 2:26 AM GMT
Singapore may take up to six years to recover: Lee Kuan YewSingapore's recession-hit economy may take up to six years to recover in a worse-case scenario, influential founding father Lee Kuan Yew said.
"The optimistic scenario is, two to three years, we're out of this," Lee told an audience at a local university late Friday.
"At the worst, four, five, six years... Because we are export-dependent," he said, adding the country's "imports and exports are the highest in the world as a percentage of GDP."
Singapore is forecast to slip into its worst recession this year with the economy likely to shrink by up to 5.0 percent. The city-state's worst recession since independence in 1965 was in 2001 when the economy contracted 2.4 percent.
The city-state was the first Asian country to slip into a recession when figures released in October last year showed the economy contracted for two straight quarters in the period to September.
Lee, an adviser in his son Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's cabinet with the title minister mentor, said earlier this month the economy may contract by as much as 10 percent this year if exports continue to fall sharply.
The latest trade figures released last week showed Singapore's key exports plunged 24 percent in February from a year ago as shipments to its key markets including the US continued to decline.
The government's official projection is for the trade-dependent economy to contract between 2.0 and 5.0 percent this year after growing 1.1 percent in 2008.

♥ 8:04 PM

THE worst since independence.

That, so far, has been the catchphrase to describe the recession facing Singapore.
But in an exclusive interview with the BBC, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has gone one step further, saying that Singapore is facing its worst economic crisis since World War II.
Singapore's exports are falling at their fastest rate since records began - sliding 35 per cent in January and 24 per cent last month.
Some experts fear the economy will contract by up to 10per cent this year.
In the interview with the BBC's South-east Asia correspondent, Mr Jonathan Head, PM Lee explained how Singapore will cope.


PM Lee: I think it's the most severe since the war.
We've had ups and down before, but this one is not only much sharper and deeper but, I think, qualitatively different because it's a worldwide problem... It's not just a cyclical recession but a financial crisis of the whole global financial system.
Mr Head: Your government has taken a number of unprecedented measures, a huge $20 billion stimulus package, dipping into your reserves for the first time... Are these measures enough, you think, to compensate for the impact of this crisis?
PM Lee: They will help us to reduce unemployment, reduce job losses... they will help companies to remain viable.
But we must understand that what we can do is to buffer the impact. You must wait for the storm to pass.
Mr Head: Do you think this region has been too complacent about its dependence on Western markets in the past?
PM Lee: We've had no choice. I mean, the whole world is plugged in as one globalised world. Consumption, the markets are in America. India and China have been growing rapidly and their markets have been growing rapidly.
But on the world scale, they are still very small, and maybe one-third, one-tenth of the American and European markets put together.
Mr Head: But has there been a failure to focus on developing domestic markets in the Asia-Pacific region, among your neighbours...?
PM Lee: I think big domestic markets, if you're looking at it, will be China and India. The way to develop the markets will be to raise their standards of living, then they have the money to consume.
Mr Head: Looking here at Singapore, what can I understand from you about the huge paper losses that have been made in the two big sovereign wealth funds here, in Temasek and GIC, because on paper, they've done very badly over the last year.
PM Lee: Well, the value of the portfolios have gone down... 20, 25 per cent... everyone has taken a hit, whether you are Harvard, Yale, Stanford or the Norwegians.
If you're in the markets, you have to ride the ups and downs.
Mr Head: Your own family has been quite involved in these funds. Your wife, until recently, ran Temask. Your father's deeply involved in GIC.
Is there a risk that when the news is bad, as it has been over the past year for these funds, that people will tend to blame your family rather than look at the institutions?
PM Lee: I think the way you put it is not the way things work in Singapore.
Minister Mentor is chairman of GIC not because he's my father... it's because he's the best man for the job and he has been chairman since he was prime minister.
And Ho Ching is CEO of Temasek not because she's my wife but because the chairman of Temasek, who is Mr Dhanabalan, and the board decided that they wanted to appoint her as CEO.
And they are there as long as they are effective, performing, and if they don't perform well, they have to take up consequences.
Mr Head: I think you are talking about perception, and perception is important in politics.
In difficult times like this, do you think that, in retrospect, it might have been better for your family just to have a lower profile?
PM Lee: (Laughs) Life would be much easier for me if the Minister Mentor is not my father and Ho Ching is not my wife.
But they are there... this is the way Singapore has worked. I think Singaporeans have understood that this is how the system works, and they will render judgment when elections come.

♥ 4:41 PM

Drop in annual pay ahead for civil servants
By Loh Chee Kong and Cheow Xin Yi, TODAY Posted: 20 March 2009 0710 hrs
SINGAPORE: With the dismal economy showing few signs of recovery, civil servants can expect their pay package to shrink in the year ahead.
TODAY has learnt that civil servants — who are awaiting news on their annual performance bonuses and pay increments as the financial year draws to a close — received a circular via email from the Public Service Division (PSD) in the Prime Minister’s Office, priming them to “expect to see a drop in annual salaries” this year.
Senior officers will see a larger percentage cut. But deserving civil servants will continue to be rewarded with performance bonuses and increments — albeit at lower levels than last year.
Dated March 16, the circular, a copy of which was obtained by TODAY, was signed off by PSD director (leadership development) Ong Toon Hui.
Contacted by TODAY, various civil servants in several ministries, including rank-and-file staff and those in junior management positions, confirmed receipt of the circular.
The news should perhaps come as little surprise, given that civil service pay is in part linked to economic performance, with components such as the GDP bonus — which will be zero this year, noted the circular.
But even so, one civil servant who works in education was “surprised”, given how the public sector has been ramping up hiring — by 18,000 over these next two years, to be precise.
She was comforted by the fact that deserving employees would be rewarded. “If they deduct our performance bonus, everyone is going to be very demoralised,” she said.
While the Amalgamated Union of Public Employees could not be reached for comment, Mr G Muthukumarasamy, the general-secretary of the Amalgamated Union of Public Daily-Rated Workers, was optimistic tweaks to civil service monthly wages would not affect those in the lower income group, as their pay was “already so low”.
Still, civil servants TODAY spoke to understood the rationale for the smaller pay packages.
The floundering global economy has spawned retrenchments and pay cuts in the private sector, and while civil servants typically do not have to fear lay-offs, it would “not be logical” for them to be similarly shielded from pay cuts, a 24-year-old civil servant said. “If you manage to stay employed, you are luckier than a lot of people out there who are retrenched.”
In fact, Singapore National Employers Federation vice-president Bob Tan said he feels any salary adjustments would correct a current “misalignment” with the private sector.
“The public sector works on a slightly different basis, you don’t see them going out of business... (but) you can’t have a situation when the public sector is earning so much more than the private sector.”
In the circular to civil servants, Ms Ong said in such difficult times, “all Singaporeans must stand together”.
“We look forward to your active contribution to helping Singapore and Singaporeans overcome the current challenges and return as quickly as possible to better times,” she wrote.
Soon after the downturn’s onset, the Government had announced in November changes affecting civil servants’ annual pay package for last year. They did not receive the special Growth Bonus and saw their Annual Variable Component (AVC) — which is also linked to economic performance — halved.
Under the pay formula, a substantial part of the annual pay of Senior Permanent Secretaries and Ministers is linked to the GDP growth rate.
Noting that the official GDP forecast of minus five to minus two per cent for this year “will most likely be revised further”, Ms Ong said there would be “zero GDP bonuses” this year, with the AVC to be cut further.
With the National Wage Council set to meet next month or May for its annual deliberations, Ms Ong said the civil service would follow its guidelines “in deciding the exact adjustments to salaries”.
She added: “It is safe to say that if economic conditions continue to deteriorate, further adjustments in salaries will likely become necessary.”
Companies to follow suit… or exploit?
As Singapore’s largest single employer with more than 60,000 staff, the civil service’s announcements on salary adjustments are closely watched by the private sector.
Companies that have resisted cutting pay so far might “take direction” from the public service, said Mr Josh Goh, a senior manager at recruitment agency The GMP Group. But he cautioned against firms — especially those that have already implemented pay cuts — from exploiting the situation.
“If the company, after the first round of cuts, can manage the cost well, there’s no necessity for them to go for a second round,” he said.
On the cards
- A drop in annual salaries, with senior officers seeing a larger percentage drop
- Civil servants on salary ranges will get merit increments, though lower
- Zero GDP bonus, reduced AVC
- Performance bonus will be paid based on individual performance to encourage officers to excel
- TODAY/yb

♥ 1:07 PM

AFP - 1 hour 17 minutes agoWASHINGTON (AFP) - -
In his first television interview, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke predicted that America's worst recession in decades likely will end this year, and that the economic recovery would gather steam next year.
ADVERTISEMENT
In the "60 Minutes" interview broadcast by CBS late Sunday, which the network said was the first by a sitting Fed chairman in 20 years, Bernanke said the "green shoots" of economic revival were already evident.
Predicting that no more big banks will fail, Bernanke also called on Washington's squabbling politicians to show the will needed for recovery as he spelled out just how close the world came to financial meltdown last autumn.
The US central bank chief, whose decision to sit down last Wednesday for the rare interview underscored the gravity of the crisis, said much depends on fixing the crisis-hit US banking system.
"We're working on it. And I do think that we will get it stabilized, and we'll see the recession coming to an end probably this year," Bernanke said.
"We'll see recovery beginning next year. And it will pick up steam over time," he said.
Asked if the United States had avoided a repeat of the 1930s Great Depression, Bernanke said: "I think we've averted that risk.
"I think we've gotten past that and now the problem is to get the thing working properly again."
Bernanke called for tougher regulatory reform to address systemic risks posed by an institution that becomes too big to fail, blasting the "unconscionable bets" taken by giant insurer American International Group.
"It makes me angry. I slammed the phone more than a few times on discussing AIG," he said, as the bailed-out insurance group was embroiled in a new political row over hefty bonuses planned for some of its top executives.
The government is now forcing AIG to jettison subsidiaries and use the profits to pay it back -- a model that Bernanke said also would apply to the major banks that have received taxpayer aid.
The banks now are being subjected to a "stress test" by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and his team to ensure they have enough money put aside to ward off new crises, the Fed chairman noted.
"They are not going to fail," he said.
"But what we can do, should it be necessary, is try to wind it down in a safe way," Bernanke added, explaining efforts to augment banks' capital ratios and dispose of toxic assets with government help.
Government bailout money for the banking industry so far worth 700 billion dollars has proven politically toxic, especially given corporate perks and bonuses still being handed out by rescued lenders.
But in remarks that could rile critics of President Barack Obama's economic revival plans, Bernanke said "the biggest risk is that we don't have the political will."
There's a danger, he said, that "we don't have the commitment to solve this problem, and that we let it just continue. In which case, we can't count on recovery," he said.
The political will for action had to be fomented by Bernanke and Geithner's predecessor Henry Paulson last September, in an urgent intervention with lawmakers on Capitol Hill.
Commenting for the first time on his actions back then, as global financial markets reeled, Bernanke said: "I felt we were pretty close to a global financial meltdown."
"It was very close," he said, arguing that without emergency powers given to the Treasury Department and Fed, "we could have had a much, much worse outcome."
CBS interviewer Scott Pelley said that when he approached the Fed for an interview a year ago, Bernanke's representative laughed and said the publicity-shy chairman "never" does interviews.
"Well, it's an extraordinary time," Bernanke told Pelley. "This is a chance for me, I think, to talk to America directly."------
Let's hope what they claim, is true and not just to lead pple to spend to rejuvenate the economy.
I have more faith with Obama, than a bush which can go up in flame easily

♥ 9:06 AM

Some comments from singaporeans about this article .. :D

"Do this consider as Blood Suckers??? "

"yes, they are increasing their spreads.To buffer for quality deterioration in their loan books.To shore up some capital in the face of possible write offs and write downs.To stay alive."

"so the other banks are not trying to shore up capital and stay alive?"

"To each his own. Or in this case, to each its own. Ours not the reason why.And we all know, banks all the around the world are scrambling to survive, one way or another, with govt help, no less.So other than being clever, I don't know what is the point that you're trying to make."

What are your comments? xD

♥ 11:19 PM

Why aren't S'pore banks cutting rates?
I REFER to last Friday's article, 'Central banks cut rates to save economy', which reported that the Bank of England and the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points to record lows of 0.5 per cent and 1.5 per cent respectively.
In other reports, Malaysia cut rates to a record low of 2.5 per cent and the Philippines slashed rates to 4.75 per cent. Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and others have also cut their interest rates, some several times, since the global financial crisis unfolded last September.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve has lowered rates from more than 5 per cent two years ago to near zero today.
In Singapore, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew has raised the spectre of a 10 per cent drop in this year's gross domestic product. A bank economist has estimated that 100,000 jobs could be shed this year, the highest in our history. Singapore is in its worst recession, even more terrible than in 1985, 2001 and 2003.
Yet I watch with amazement and disbelief as the oligopolistic banks in Singapore hold the prime lending rate steady at 5 per cent, unchanged for more than 10 years. Board rates, which determine the final mortgage rate home owners have to pay, have similarly been kept unchanged.
Thus it comes as no surprise to read that all banks have made profits from their Singapore operations in their latest result announcements, albeit lower than in previous quarters, with Standard Chartered Bank actually making record profits. All this while smaller companies are folding around them, and job losses escalating.
Why do banks, both local and foreign, not lower prime and mortgage rates? And why does the watchdog, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, allow this situation to continue? Can it not force banks to lower their rates? Yet over the past six months, banks have steadily reduced only the savings rate, thus increasing their margins.
Traditionally, our interest rates have been lower than Malaysia's for as long as I can remember. Today, Malaysia's rate is way lower than ours.
Zhang Bao Guang
http://www.asiaone.com/Business/News/My%2BMoney/Story/A1Story20090311-127732.html

♥ 11:17 PM

Just a post for fun .. xD

New Stock Market Terms

CEO - Chief Embezzlement Officer
CFO - Corporate Fraud Officer
BULL MARKET - A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.
BEAR MARKET - a 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.
VALUE INVESTING - The art of buying low and selling lower.
P/E RATIO - The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.
BROKER - What my financial planner has made me.
STANDARD & POOR - Your life in a nutshell.
STOCK ANALYST - Idiot who just downgraded your stock.
STOCK SPLIT - When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.
MARKET CORRECTION - The day after you buy stocks.
CASH FLOW - The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.
YAHOO - What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.
WINDOWS - What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought Yahoo at $240 per share.
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR - Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.
PROFIT - an archaic word no longer in use.
If you had purchased $1000 of shares in Delta Airlines one year ago, you will have $49.00 today. If you had purchased $1000 of shares in AIG one year ago, you will have $33.00 today. If you had purchased $1000 of shares in Lehman Brothers one year ago, you will have $0.00 today.
But---- if you had purchased $1000 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, then turned in the aluminum cans for recycling refund, you will have received $214.00.Based on the above, the best current investment plan is to drink heavily and recycle.. It's called the Moscow Blue Syndrome
ps...some words amended to serve intended target

♥ 11:08 PM

A risk for future ease

Singapore's approach in face of the financial crisis.

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Long said the city-state's financial system must remain open to the world although the presence of foreign banks poses potential risks in the current economic downturn.

"While we take reasonable safeguards, we must stay open to the world," said Mr Lee. "Walling ourselves in does not mean that we would be safe; it just means we will starve."

♥ 11:16 PM

Sieve out some of these and put there>>
I cant access template.

Demand-Supply
Economics is, at root, the study of incentives: how people get what they want, or need, especially when other people want or need the same thing.
-Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, Freakonomi

Market system?
"Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite."
-John Kenneth Galbraith

♥ 11:06 PM

Guys, if you think this skin is too plain or not up to your satisfaction, pls help to find better blog skins for the blog. One more thing only blog skins that are related to economys are allowed. thanks. remember to thank zhenping for helping find our first blogskin.

♥ 7:54 PM

ECONOMICS SUPPLY AND DEMAND MUSIC VIDEO:

♥ 3:36 PM

Hey guys, this is our economics blog. feel free post articles or your research here!

♥ 8:18 PM